Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Lisboa contributes so that this information, essential for public clarification, is open and free for everyone to read
Santa Casa Misericórdia of Lisbon
Former US State Department planner Edward Fishman warned on Thursday that the changes forced by the covid-19 pandemic will lead to the establishment of a new world order in the next one to five years.
"I am convinced that this will be a moment of transition," said the expert, who is a non-resident researcher at the Atlantic Council and associate researcher at the Center for New American Security, speaking at a session organized by the Association of Foreign Correspondents in the United States.
There is an inherent desire to return to normality and a nostalgia to return to pre-pandemic life, ”he said. "It is important to accept that there will be no return to normal and that a crisis of this magnitude does not just disappear overnight".
Fishman, who served as an adviser to the Obama Administration's Secretary of State, John Kerry, designed a new world order with a two-tier system. A global level in which all the great powers participate and a parallel level that will bring together what it describes as affinity democracies, whose principles are similar.
"The global level must have a strict scope, focus only on the problems of collective action: climate change, cybersecurity and pandemics", said the expert. "The level of democracies with affinities must focus on more divisive and ambitious problems: misinformation, tax evasion and inequality."
The former adviser said that this moment should lead to an “orderly and thoughtful withdrawal from globalization”, stressing the “very negative consequences” that he had in society, that the post-pandemic period justifies the creation of alternative supply chains (for example pharmaceuticals) and that infrastructure must be built between affinity democracies.
The D10 alliance proposed by the United Kingdom to circumvent the importance of China and Huawei in the supply of 5G equipment is, according to him, an example of this.
Establishing the level of affinity democracies will not, he said, be done through a single major agreement or conference. "I am skeptical that the new order will be born in a grand summit," he said, noting that there will be several important events.
"As long as leaders can meet in person, we will start to see these things happen," he said, referring to the Democratic White House candidate Joe Biden's proposal for a "Summit for Democracy".
It is wrong to think that the consequences of the 2020 elections are not huge for the establishment of the new world order ”, he added.
Fishman advised to "avoid the blame game" and said that the United States of America should be "generous" in helping the economic reconstruction of the rest of the world and finding a cure for covid-19. "Until the pandemic is contained everywhere, it will not be contained anywhere," he declared.
The United States must also seek a "domestic consensus" on the way forward, going beyond the party fractures that currently exist to focus on issues that Americans agree on, such as combating climate change and the threat of cybercrime.
Edward Fishman argued that this is the end of the order started in 1945 after World War II and said that there are several lessons to be learned from the way in which this – and the previous order, of 1919 – was created and conducted.
World orders are as valuable as the trust that countries give them, ”said the official. Covid-19 changed everything: "With the great powers to be seen as losers, confidence in the world order ceases to exist".
The expert said that in this transition it will be necessary to plan ahead and decide what are the principles that politicians, civic leaders, citizens and companies want to see in the new world order, which could bring about a more equitable economy.
"These transitions are very rare," he said. "It is important that we do not spoil this opportunity".
The covid-19 pandemic has already claimed more than 412,000 deaths and infected almost 7.3 million people in 196 countries and territories, according to the balance sheet made by the French agency AFP.
In the USA, the country with the most deaths (112,833) and the most confirmed cases of infection (almost 2 million), some states have already started to see a second wave of infections, after the reopening started in May.